Fannie Mae is predicting that continued low rates and possibly lower rates are expected in 2020.
Listings, Sales, Prices: All Rise
November 19, 2019
The Twin Cities real estate market started the fourth quarter of 2019 on a strong note with buyer and seller activity rising in October compared to 2018. Buoyed by historically low interest rates, the number of new listings and pending sales rose last month and the median price of a home also increased.
New listings increased by 3.8 percent last month to nearly 6,300 properties on the market. Pending home sales increased 4.9 percent in October, continuing their steady rise since mortgage rates dipped below 4.0 percent in June. The increase also puts the number of pending sales in positive territory for the year. Continuing the market’s upward trend, the median price of a home in the Twin Cities rose to $280,000 in October, a 5.7 percent increase over last year.
October reversed a trend of rising days on market and continued September’s reversal of sellers accepting a slightly lower share of their list price compared to last year. With increased sales activity, quicker market times and sellers yielding strong offers, it’s no wonder more sellers decided to list. There are still some signs that the market is rebalancing, but buyers awaiting spooky news could see their patience tested based on October numbers.
While inventory has grown this year, supply remains tight for first-time buyers and downsizing households competing for homes under $350,000. At this price point, multiple offers and homes selling for over list price in record time is still common. Builders struggle to replenish inventory due to high costs, a labor shortage and regulatory constraints. The shortage of affordable homes has prompted many owners to stay put. With 2.3 months of supply, the Twin Cities market is still significantly undersupplied.
October 2019 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
- Sellers listed 6,258 properties on the market, a 3.8 percent increase from last October
- Buyers closed on 5,391 homes, a 1.3 percent increase
- Inventory levels decreased 5.8 percent from last October to 11,607 units
- Months Supply of Inventory was down 8.0 percent to 3 months
- The Median Sales Price rose 5.7 percent to $280,000
- Cumulative Days on Market declined 4.2 percent to 46 days, on average (median of 25)
- Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
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- Single family sales rose 5.5 percent; condo sales increased 1.4 percent; townhome sales fell 0.5 percent
- Traditional sales increased 4.8 percent; foreclosure sales dropped 21.1 percent; short sales fell 55.6 percent
- Previously owned sales were up 4.4 percent; new construction sales climbed 2.6 percent
Quotables
“Interest rates are boosting buyer confidence,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “Consumers may also be realizing that some of their fears around the market and economy could be overstated.”
“The latest figures show our key metrics returning to growth,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “We expect Minnesota and the Midwest to fare well should that change.”
From The Skinny Blog.
Weekly Market Report
For Week Ending November 9, 2019
With the stock market reaching record highs, continued low unemployment, and low mortgage rates, many signs in the US economy remain strong. However, total household debt has been rising for twenty-one consecutive quarters and is now $1.3 trillion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in 2008. While delinquency rates remain low across most debt types, including mortgages, higher consumer debt loads can limit future household spending capability and increase risk if the economy slows down.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending November 9:
- New Listings increased 6.3% to 1,094
- Pending Sales increased 1.6% to 992
- Inventory decreased 5.9% to 11,463
For the month of October:
- Median Sales Price increased 5.7% to $280,000
- Days on Market decreased 4.2% to 46
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.1% to 98.1%
- Months Supply of Homes For Sale decreased 4.0% to 2.4
All comparisons are to 2018
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From MAAR Market Data News.
Weekly Market Report
For Week Ending November 2, 2019
This week the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate for the third time this year. This action was widely anticipated by the market and mortgage rates rose for the third consecutive week. Despite the recent rise, rates still remain approximately one percent lower than a year ago, which has a substantial effect on buying power. Also this week, a TransUnion analysis predicts a surge of additional first-time homebuyers will enter the market between 2020 and 2022, climbing from 7.6 million buyers in the 2016-2018 period to 8.3-9.2 million in the 2020-2022 period.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending November 2:
- New Listings increased 9.2% to 1,223
- Pending Sales increased 3.3% to 1,043
- Inventory decreased 5.5% to 11,917
For the month of September:
- Median Sales Price increased 6.8% to $279,900
- Days on Market increased 2.4% to 43
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.1% to 98.5%
- Months Supply of Homes For Sale decreased 3.7% to 2.6
All comparisons are to 2018
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From MAAR Market Data News.
Weekly Market Report
For Week Ending October 26, 2019
A new Census report this week announced that new construction home sales nationwide decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 701,000 units, which is 15.5% higher than a year ago. Also in the announcement was news that the median sales price of new construction homes declined to $299,440 nationally, down 8% from a year ago. This decline was due to an increase in the availability of new homes at lower price points and is a welcomed change in what has been an underserved segment of the market.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 26:
- New Listings decreased 0.4% to 1,239
- Pending Sales increased 9.1% to 1,094
- Inventory decreased 4.9% to 12,212
For the month of September:
- Median Sales Price increased 6.8% to $279,700
- Days on Market increased 2.4% to 43
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.1% to 98.5%
- Months Supply of Homes For Sale decreased 3.7% to 2.6
All comparisons are to 2018
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From MAAR Market Data News.
Weekly Market Report
For Week Ending October 19, 2019
While the U.S. Commerce Department reported that total housing starts dropped 9.4% month over month in September, that drop was focused on the apartment and condo segment while single-family housing starts actually rose .3%. Throughout much of the country, the continued low level of housing inventory is constraining sales activity from where it would be in a balanced market. Active inventory is in its normal seasonal decline, leaving buyers with fewer choices as we move towards the end of the year.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 19:
- New Listings decreased 6.1% to 1,309
- Pending Sales increased 6.5% to 1,138
- Inventory decreased 3.7% to 12,440
For the month of September:
- Median Sales Price increased 6.6% to $279,250
- Days on Market increased 2.4% to 43
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.1% to 98.5%
- Months Supply of Homes For Sale decreased 3.7% to 2.6
All comparisons are to 2018
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From MAAR Market Data News.
September Monthly Skinny Video
“Nationally, buyer and seller activity remained strong, buoyed by low mortgage rates.”
Weekly Market Report
For Week Ending October 12, 2019
In the last month, mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest monthly average in more than three years, and now Fannie Mae is predicting that continued low rates, and possibly lower rates, are expected in 2020. These historically low mortgage rates have and will continue to support buyer demand and may create additional lift to home prices as lower financing costs give buyers the ability to offer more to secure their dream home.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 12:
- New Listings increased 7.3% to 1,496
- Pending Sales decreased 5.9% to 1,036
- Inventory decreased 4.4% to 12,457
For the month of September:
- Median Sales Price increased 6.5% to $279,000
- Days on Market increased 2.4% to 43
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.1% to 98.5%
- Months Supply of Homes For Sale decreased 3.7% to 2.6
All comparisons are to 2018
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From MAAR Market Data News.
Sales, prices still rising despite some changes this year
The latest numbers for Twin Cities residential real estate show a stable market with some ongoing signs of transition. Prices are still rising, supply is still tight, and demand has recovered even while market times have lengthened. Even though more buyers are closing on homes, the urgency has subsided somewhat. Days on market rose 2.4 percent from last September, marking the fifth year-over-year increase in the last seven months. Market times remain swift despite modest increases. Sales rose 3.4 percent and the median sales price increased 6.6 percent to $279,250. Pending sales—a measure of signed contracts and future demand—rose 2.9 percent. Both pending and closed sales are down slightly for the year so far, but that may change. New listings were up 2.5 percent, helping some buyers take advantage of historically low rates. Sellers have been accepting a slightly lower share of their list price compared to the year prior for seven of the last eight months—with September bucking that trend. This, along with other indicators, suggests the market is rebalancing in a way that could benefit buyers.
The number of active listings for sale is up over the last 12 months and for most of 2019. Even so, the market remains tight—particularly for first-time buyers and downsizers competing in the under $300,000 segment where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price remain commonplace. Despite the demand, builders struggle to replenish inventory in that undersupplied segment due to high land and material costs combined with a significant labor shortage and tricky regulations. The shortage of affordable homes has led to an increase in remodeling as people are staying in their homes longer. It’s challenging to find comparable home at a similar payment in the desired location. With just 2.5 months of supply, the Twin Cities is still significantly undersupplied.
September 2019 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
- Sellers listed 7,041 properties on the market, a 2.5 percent increase from last September
- Buyers closed on 5,358 homes, a 3.4 percent increase
- Inventory levels decreased 5.6 percent from last September to 12,478 units
- Months Supply of Inventory was down 7.4 percent to 5 months
- The Median Sales Price rose 6.6 percent to $279,250
- Cumulative Days on Market rose 2.4 percent to 43 days, on average (median of 22)
- Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
-
- Single family sales rose 5.5 percent; condo sales increased 1.4 percent; townhome sales fell 0.5 percent
- Traditional sales increased 4.8 percent; foreclosure sales dropped 21.1 percent; short sales fell 55.6 percent
- Previously owned sales were up 4.4 percent; new construction sales climbed 2.6 percent
Quotables
“Attractive interest rates have unleashed some of the pent-up demand from earlier this year,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “But each price point, product type and area is unique.”
“Buyers are still very much motivated despite some challenges,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “It really shows the resilience of our region and the value of homeownership.”
From The Skinny Blog.
Mortgage Rates Jump
October 17, 2019
Despite this week’s uptick in mortgage rates, the housing market remains on the upswing with improvement in construction and home sales. While there has been a material weakness in manufacturing and consistent trade uncertainty, other economic trends like employment and homebuilder sentiment are encouraging.
Information provided by Freddie Mac.